According to the International Energy Agency’s Electricity 2026 report, global electricity demand is projected to rise by an average 3.6% per year from 2026 to 2030. The IEA said growth is being driven by industry, electric vehicles, higher air-conditioning use, and expanding data centres and AI. The agency said grids and flexibility are becoming the main bottlenecks as demand accelerates.
Data card
3.6% demand CAGR | 2,500 GW queued | 50% grid investment rise by 2030
The IEA said electricity demand is on course to grow at least 2.5 times faster than overall energy demand through 2030 as electrification spreads. The agency said emerging and developing economies remain the main engine, but advanced economies are also rising again after about 15 years of stagnation.
Bridge: Faster demand growth changes the problem from building generation alone to connecting and balancing it at scale.
On the supply side, the IEA said output from renewables, natural gas and nuclear is set to expand to keep pace. It projected renewables and nuclear together will generate about 50% of global electricity by 2030, up from about 42% today.
The IEA said renewables are in the process of overtaking coal generation globally after coming close to parity in 2025, supported by record solar PV deployment. It added that nuclear output reached a new record, extending the increase in low-emissions generation.
Bridge: As the mix becomes more weather-dependent and demand rises, the IEA said the grid is increasingly the binding constraint.
The report said more than 2,500 gigawatts of projects are stalled in grid connection queues worldwide, including renewables, storage and large new loads such as data centres. The IEA said these backlogs can delay capacity additions needed to meet demand and policy goals.
The IEA also said that grid-enhancing technologies and regulatory reforms that enable more flexible connections could allow the integration of up to 1,600 gigawatts of queued projects in the near term, helping systems use existing infrastructure more efficiently.
Key numbers
- 3.6%: average annual global electricity demand growth (2026–2030 forecast)
- 50%: projected renewables + nuclear share of global generation by 2030
- 42%: current renewables + nuclear share (IEA estimate)
- 2,500 GW: projects stalled in global grid connection queues
- 1,600 GW: queued projects the IEA says could be integrated near term
- 50%: IEA estimate for how much annual grid investment must rise by 2030
The IEA said meeting demand will require a rapid expansion of grids and flexibility, alongside a stronger focus on security and resilience. It flagged rising risks from ageing infrastructure, extreme weather and cyber threats, and said systems will need modernised operations and better protection of critical assets.
The report also noted affordability pressures. The IEA said household electricity prices in many countries have risen faster than incomes since 2019, and that elevated power costs are weighing on businesses and industry.
SOURCES
- https://www.iea.org/news/global-electricity-demand-is-set-to-grow-strongly-to-2030-underscoring-need-for-investments-in-grids-and-flexibility
- https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2026
- https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2026/executive-summary
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